Bear Essentials

By Jeff Cooper
Minyanville

Let’s take a look at the percentage advances following some of the greatest bear markets in history.

1) From a low on November 9th,1903 to a high on December 5th, 1904 a period of 1 year and 26 days the DJIA gained 73.7%. A similar move now would project to April 2nd, 2010 and 1158 S&P.

2) From a low on November 15th 1907 to a high on August 10th 1908, the DJIA moved up 61.1% in 8 months and 26 days. A similar move would project to November 30, 2009 and 1074 S&P.

3) From a low on August 24th, 1921, to October 14th 1922, the DJIA moved up 61.1% in 1 year, 1 month and 20 days. A similar move would project to April 26th, 2010 and 1079 S&P.

4) From a low on March 31st, 1938 to a high on November 9th, 1938, the S&P gained 62.2 % in 7 months and 9 days. A similar move would project to October 15th, 2009 and 1081 S&P.

(Point of order, Mr. Speaker. On a previous post I stated 'In 1938, over a 223 day span, there was a 63% rally on the Dow. On the 223rd day of this rally (Oct 19th) off the S&P low of 667, the S&P opened at 1088 which was, you guessed it, a 63% rally off the low.' I hereby yield my time and price to the distinguished gentleman. -AM)

5) From a low on October 3, 1974, the S&P advanced 53.5% to a high on July 15th, 1975, a period of 9 months and 12 days. A similar move would project to December 16th, 2009 and 1023 S&P.

6) From a low on October 10, 2002 the S&P advanced 50.9% to March 8, 2004, a period of 1 year, 4 months, 27days. A similar move would project to August 3rd,2010 and 1006 S&P.

7) From a low in July 1932, the S&P advanced 177% to July 18th 1933 (just over 1 year). A similar move would project to April 2010 and 1848 S&P.