Monday, November 30, 2009
After the locusts comes the famine
'Well I don't care about history
'Cause that's not where I wanna be
Don't wanna be taught to be no fool'
'Just a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down
In a most delightful way
The job's a game'
'Plenty of sunshine headin' my way
Mister Bluebird's on my shoulder'
Do you remember the first of December?
S&P down 8.93% on 12/01/08. The worst one day performance in December for the S&P 500 was -5.41% in 1929. The worst first day of the month ever for the S&P 500 was -4.76% in June 1931.
In 2008, Black Friday sales measured by ShopperTrak rose 3 percent compared to the prior year's Black Friday.
TNS Retail Forward senior economist(December 5, 2008): "The good news is that shoppers are not further tightening their spending plans."
(December 7, 2008) :More than 172 million shoppers throughout the United States visited stores or Web sites during Black Friday weekend, according to the National Retail Federation in Washington, D.C. That represented a 17.7 percent increase compared with 2007. "There was a lot of demand out there, and there were discounts that people couldn't pass up," said Federation spokesman Scott Krugman.
(December 7, 2008) :Richard Giss, a retail analyst with the Los Angeles office of Deloitte LLP,said most retailers probably will be satisfied to match their 2007 sales figures or maybe record a slight year-to-year increase.
Sound familiar? Vuja de non!
Last year's entire holiday season marked the worst performance in nearly 40 years.
Here's a thought experiment:
Door #1: More Shoppers, average spending up; Bubblevision Headline: Thanksgiving Sales Rise signalling recovery
Door #2: Less Shoppers, average spending up; Bubblevision Headline: Thanksgiving Sales signal pent-up demand
Door #3: More shoppers, average spending down; Bubblevision Headline: Thanksgiving Sales rise as expected
Door #4: Less shoppers, average spending down; Bubblevision Headline: Thanksgiving Sales suggest shoppers waiting for bargains, forecast of increasing traffic
If quantum theory is correct there exists a reality where Bubblevision focuses on the fact that this year's reporting is eerily similar to 2008 Black Friday's commentary and that since there is one more shopping day this holiday season, if we're flat year over year we are actually down.
Or in other words, after the locusts comes the famine.