Tuesday, September 8, 2009
We ain't in the statistic fakin' business, we in the statistic killin' business and cousin business is a-boomin.
TrimTabs via The King Report :
We believe the BLS is underestimating current job losses due to their flawed survey methodology…over the past twelve months, the BLS has revised their job loss estimates up a whopping 648,000, or 12.5% to 5.83 million from a preliminary estimate of 5.18 million…
During an economic downturn, the BLS habitually underestimates job losses because their survey methodology is incapable of picking up rapid changes in economic growth. (Sound of crickets chirping. -AM)
Real-time daily income tax deposits, however, react instantly to changes in employment levels, making this data a much better measure of real-time employment…
(Indy the fire is going out. See chart above. Unfortunately Matt Trivisonno at http://www.trivisonno.com/withholding-taxes-chart, pulled the link because Denniger among others posted his chart unattributed. -AM)
This past month, the BLS added 118,000 jobs to their non-seasonally adjusted survey data as supposedly more new businesses were created than closed.
More puzzling still is that throughout this entire recession, with the exception of January 2009, the BLS has added jobs every month due to more businesses supposedly opening their doors versus closing their doors. We find this impossible to believe considering the current recession is the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
(Thanks for the analysis Sherlock. -AM)