Tuesday, September 1, 2009

The path ahead


Hedge fund manager Doug Kass said he is betting on a 10 percent decline in U.S. equities during the second half of the year, on the belief that economic performance and corporate profits will disappoint well into next year.

"I am shorting this market because we are facing a period of disappointing economic and corporate growth," Kass, founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, told Reuters.

"My guess would be that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will be about 920 or so by year end."

(Perhaps but think you'll be going long this year to hit that target. Most bulls would admit that it is likely that we could bounce off the 200 dma {in the mid 800s now} to form an inverted head and shoulders, however there is the attraction of our breaking the 2002 low that needs to be resolved for there to be a market recovery. I cannot get out of my mind the thought that we bounce from a point above 2002 lows but below the 200dma and then we have the mother of all rallies... again. Enough to scare folks into Stimulus 2.0 while giving the bullisht crowd the ability to say the bottom is in. The character of the selling into early October will be telling. -AM)

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