Thursday, October 1, 2009
A rose by any other name doth smell less sweet
(The trade I have on is shorting the custodes.
It is expressed currently in being short equities with the expectation that Reflation Rally 2.0 may be waiting in the wings.
It was expressed previously in moving a good hunk of dry powder into the yuan with a splash of yen during this crisis. The rest ... all U.S., although I covet gold ... perhaps some day.
It is anchored in the belief that since rich folks bad speculative bets have been transferred to the Federales, since we have tried to solve a debt crisis with more debt,equivalent to fixing a leaky dam with water, we have made the problem worse.
Unfortunately in our system it appears that worse problems just lead to worse solutions.
Failure to liquidate the insolvent banksters has liquidated a large part of the productive economy.
We have tried to eliminate the butt end of the business cycle for the last quarter century and it would appear that Mr. Market is a bit ticked off.
A jobless recovery is an oxymoron, but the institutional manufacture of consent spits out such pablum because it works... and it has worked in changing the questions so that the Federales need not worry about the answers.
The shorting the custodes trade is also anchored in the belief that ultimately the real answers matter.
Such as the reply one might get if the MSM did a full-court press on the most holy of holies statistic ... GDP. -AM)
The King Report
October 1, 2009 – Issue 3604
“Independent View of the News”
John Williams: 2nd-Q GDP Decline Narrowed in Revision (to -0.8% from -1.0%), but GNP and GDI Contractions Deepened (GNP to -1.0% from -0.8%, GDI to -2.6% from -2.1%) - Annual GDP Contraction Remained Worst of Post-World War II Era
GDI, Gross Domestic Income, should approximate GDP; but it has been experiencing an increasing divergence as the Ministry of Truth desperately crafts better-than-reality economic data.
John Williams explains: Gross Domestic Income (GDI)" is the theoretical equivalent to the GDP, but itis not followed by the popular press. Where GDP reflects the consumption side of the economy and GDI reflects the offsetting income side. When the series estimates do not equal each other, which almost always is the case, the difference is added to or subtracted from the GDI as a "statistical discrepancy."
Although the BEA touts the GDP as the more accurate measure, the GDI is relatively free of the monthly political targeting the GDP goes through.
"Gross National Product (GNP)" is the broadest measure of the U.S. economy published by the BEA. Once the headline number, now it is rarely followed by the popular media. GDP is the GNP net of trade in factor income (interest and dividend payments).
GNP growth usually is weaker than GDP growth for net-debtor nations.
Games played with money flows between the United States and the rest of the world tends to mute that impact on the reporting of U.S. GDP growth.
The Street, US government and financial media reported and followed GNP until 1987 because at that time the US turned from a net creditor to a net debtor; and GNP sank on the outflows of cash.
(A rose by any other name doth smell less sweet. Rosy numbers and numbers rasa. -AM)