Sunday, October 11, 2009

Reality is the tail risk

I’m no idealist to believe firmly in the integrity of our economic system. That’s no ideal to me. That is a living, working reality!

Now I am confident that you gentlemen will review without passion the evidence that you have heard, come to a decision, and restore this market to its' fair value.

By Shobhana Chandra

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in the U.S. probably fell in September as auto showrooms sat empty after the “cash for clunkers” program expired, economists said before a report this week.

Purchases dropped 2.1 percent, the biggest decrease this year, after rising 2.7 percent in August, according to the median forecast of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Commerce Department figures due Oct. 14. Other reports may show inflation and factory production cooled last month.

Plunging auto sales in September are a sign household spending may not be sustained without government incentives as long as unemployment keeps climbing. The financial health of consumers, whose purchases make up the biggest part of the economy, will go a long way in determining when Federal Reserve policy makers raise interest rates again.

“We’re not necessarily going to get huge growth from the consumer,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania. “Income growth is going to be restrained, and that’s going to translate into modest gains in spending.”

Excluding automobiles, sales probably rose 0.2 percent after a 1.1 percent increase the prior month, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke on Oct. 8 said the central bank will be prepared to tighten monetary policy when the outlook for the economy “has improved sufficiently.”

“As economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road,” Bernanke said in a speech in Washington.

(At no time will our hands leave our arms. -AM)

Industrial production expanded by 0.1 percent in September after increasing 0.8 percent the month before, reflecting the end of the clunkers program, according to the survey. The proportion of plant capacity in use, meanwhile, was probably little changed. These figures are due from the Fed on Oct. 16.

A day earlier, a pair of regional Fed reports may show New York area manufacturing slowed this month after growing in September at the fastest pace in almost two years, while a factory gauge for the Philadelphia region likely dropped from the highest reading since June 2007, economists said.

On Oct. 16, a report may show the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer confidence for October dipped from the highest level since January 2008. The index may slip further: economists surveyed by Bloomberg from Oct. 1 to Oct. 8 projected unemployment would exceed 10 percent in the first quarter of next year.

The Labor Department on Oct. 15 may report the cost of living in September rose 0.2 percent, half the pace of the prior month, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Economists estimate that prices of goods imported into the U.S., due a day earlier, climbed 0.1 percent last month after a 2 percent gain, indicating inflation remains in check.

(And the bear says ... if it isn't back of the Hand to the dollar then banks better blow out or markets go down. -AM)

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