Thursday, August 27, 2009
The last bear capitulates
(At this moment,at the oft-heralded 'end of the recession', where housing and employment are showing signs of stabilization, where economies are whispering about 'exit' strategies and the models are showing zero chance of fail... may I humbling request that the last bagholder screw in the light?
The future is so bright I have to short shades. -AM)
Posted by Neil Hume on Aug 27 10:29
Some burnt fingers round at RBS on Thursday.
In his last note before jetting off to Barbados for his summer vacation, RBS strategist Bob “The Bear” Janjuah told clients that if the S&P 500 closed above 1,022 for four consecutive days he would concede that the lunatics were now running the asylum and close his short position
(Bob you should have kept that QT, they did it to you on purpose. -AM) :
'In order to protect against this fear, that policymakers can’t bring themselves to do the right thing and instead do the short-term thing AGAIN, with no heed to the l-t consequences as a result, then sensible Stop Losses are needed. I will go with the same Stop Loss I set out below on 5th June. So, if the S&P cash index closes ABOVE 1022 for 4 consecutive days, I will be stopped out and it will very likely be the case that policymakers are going the ’shrt-term next bubble’ money illusion/nominal route rather than the longer term route which would be more painful shrt term but which will pave the way for the next 20yr boost to real productivity and real wealth gains.'
After holding firm last night, the S&P has now achieved that goal and it has fallen to Bob’s sidekick Andy Chaytor to close the bear and reluctantly put on a tactical bullish trade - for the next month or so.
(The last bear capitulates. -AM)