Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Wisdom from Marc Faber

(Following is a combination from his Bloomberg interview and his recent newsletter -AM)

Sees possible further 20% upside from these levels on S&P, however over a 10 day looks overbought, suggests a see-saw pattern to April at which point there is potential for a big break given that hopes for a second half recovery will crash on the shores of reality.

Industrial commodities are cheap relative to gold, recommends that traders buy tennis balls (huge drops favoring quick rebounds-AM.)

(From his newsletter)
'Buying a basket of resource companies such as CVRD (RIO), Freeport McMoran (FCX), Newmont Mining (NEM), BHP (BHP), Rio Tinto (RTP), Oil Service Holders (OIH) and United States Oil Fund (USO) and the simultaneous selling of out of the money call options could be considered. I am mentioning this strategy because call premiums are now relatively high and because - following a rebound - I would expect the recent lows of industrial commodities to be retested.'

In the long term, no full global recovery for 5 years. The greatest trade for 2009? Short the long bond. (I'm greedy and will wait until Rosenberg's 1.5% on the 10year is met. - AM). When the market recovers, the leaders in every field will benefit the most for they will have access to capital. Technology named: Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, Cisco and suggests Yahoo will 'be taken out'. International banks named: CITIC Pacific, OCBC Bank and Bangkok Bank.

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