Friday, January 16, 2009

Giving credit where credit is due

Much has been written about the seemingly disconnected credit and equity markets.

For those that believe credit is being overly pessimistic consider the Nortel bankruptcy.

They had cash in hand and no pending debt rollovers.

They chose to go into administration in part I believe because they felt that they could mitigate the costs moreso now then later as 'going Chapter 11' stands to become the crowded trade.

Ford saying that the 'gravy years' aren't coming back, Alcoa suggesting the importance of 'financial staying power', is a trend that is not equity's friend.

Unless the Federales take capitalism off the drip and allow the clearing price for cancer to be realized, the infection will become wholly resistant to treatment.

Don't believe that Moody's forecasting 15% default as opposed to 4% is an outlier, it is the shape of things to come.

Have no doubt that a lot of the 1 trillion in pirate equity fundraising will be deployed as DIP financing.

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