Sunday, January 4, 2009

Reflation versus Reality

Bennet Sedacca, President of Atlantic Advisors, reports that 'according to S&P, its ‘top down/macro’ earnings estimate for 2009 has fallen all the way to $42 per share.'

Overlaying this earnings forecast with previous bear market bottoms results in:

1974 low of 7.9 P/E returns (2009/2010)+ S&P low of 332.
1982 low of 6.6 P/E returns (2009/2010)+ S&P low of 277.
1932 low of 5.6 P/E returns (2009/2010)+ S&P low of 235.

Hard to imagine the S&P getting to these levels, and in the reality series sponsored by the Fed entitled Reflation vs. Reality, we probably will bottom at a relatively (historically) high P/E.

Bennet is looking for 500-600 S&P, 500 would be ~ P/E of 12.

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