Saturday, November 15, 2008

Stock Market Bottom

From a recent Barron's (paraphrased):

In 1982 S&P bottomed at 6.6 P/E, a 15% earnings yield...close to the 16.32% on BAA corporates.
In 1974 S&P bottomed at 7.9 P/E, a 12.66% earnings yield...well over the 10.48% BAA yield.
In 1932 S&P bottomed at 5.6 P/E, a 17.86% earnings yield... equating to more than half again the 11% BAA

If 2009 earnings are $68.50, a quarter less than current Wall Street estimates, the S&P trades at a PE of 12.4.
That is a 8.06% earnings yield... 86% of the 9.39% BAA corporate yield.

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