'We'll happily abandon our nagging negativism on the stock market when everyone stops saying it's time to buy because everyone's bearish.' -Alan Abelson
'If you look at every one of these [derivative] products, they make sense. But in aggregate, they are bull%&*$. They are crap. They serve to cheat people.' - Gao Xiqing, President of China Investment Corporation
'I need to confess that I have no idea where the S&P 500 will be in a year's time.' -Marc Faber
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Thought police
techfragments.com
January 01, 2009
New security check points in 2020 will look just like something out of the futuristic movie, The Minority Report. The idea of the new checkpoints will allow high traffic to pass through just as you were walking at a normal pace. No more, waving a wand to get through checkpoints. The new checkpoint can detect if you have plans to set off a bomb before you even enter the building.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is developing a system called Future Attribute Screening Technology, or FAST for short. The system uses cameras to detect slight alterations in pupil sizes, blink rate and even direction of gaze. A laser radar called BioLIDAR measures heart rate and changes between heartbeats. The BioLIDAR can even monitor a persons respiration and track movements in the face, neck, and cheeks. Stressed out? A thermal camera will pick up on this too by gauging changes in the skin temperature.
Homeland Security ran a test in September of 140 volunteers using a FAST prototype. The system was very accurately able to pick out people with hostile intent. "We're still very early on in this research, but it is looking very promising," says DHS science spokesman John Verrico. "We are running at about 78% accuracy on mal-intent detection, and 80% on deception." Homeland Security also selected a group of 23 attendees to be civilian "accomplices" in their test. They were each given a "disruptive device" to carry through the portal and, unlike the other attendees, were conscious that they were on a mission.
"It does not predict who you are and make a judgment, it only provides an assessment in situations," said Burns. "It analyzes you against baseline stats when you walk in the door, it measures reactions and variations when you approach and go through the portal."
January 01, 2009
New security check points in 2020 will look just like something out of the futuristic movie, The Minority Report. The idea of the new checkpoints will allow high traffic to pass through just as you were walking at a normal pace. No more, waving a wand to get through checkpoints. The new checkpoint can detect if you have plans to set off a bomb before you even enter the building.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is developing a system called Future Attribute Screening Technology, or FAST for short. The system uses cameras to detect slight alterations in pupil sizes, blink rate and even direction of gaze. A laser radar called BioLIDAR measures heart rate and changes between heartbeats. The BioLIDAR can even monitor a persons respiration and track movements in the face, neck, and cheeks. Stressed out? A thermal camera will pick up on this too by gauging changes in the skin temperature.
Homeland Security ran a test in September of 140 volunteers using a FAST prototype. The system was very accurately able to pick out people with hostile intent. "We're still very early on in this research, but it is looking very promising," says DHS science spokesman John Verrico. "We are running at about 78% accuracy on mal-intent detection, and 80% on deception." Homeland Security also selected a group of 23 attendees to be civilian "accomplices" in their test. They were each given a "disruptive device" to carry through the portal and, unlike the other attendees, were conscious that they were on a mission.
"It does not predict who you are and make a judgment, it only provides an assessment in situations," said Burns. "It analyzes you against baseline stats when you walk in the door, it measures reactions and variations when you approach and go through the portal."
Bankster backlash
By David Goldman,
CNNMoney.com
December 23, 2008: 6:03 AM ET
Most Americans believe that investment fraud like the recently revealed Ponzi scheme run by Bernard Madoff happens regularly on Wall Street, according to a recent survey.
In a CNN/Opinion Research poll, 74% of those surveyed said they think Madoff's behavior is common among financial advisors and institutions. The Securities and Exchange Commission alleges that Madoff operated a $50 billion Ponzi scheme - the largest in history - that cost some of the world's largest financial firms, charitable foundations and individual investors hundreds of millions of dollars each.
Of the more than 1,000 American surveyed from Dec. 19-21, 59% said the government regulates the stock market and financial institutions too loosely. Just 22% said government regulation is too tight, while 18% said the government's current market oversight is exactly right.
Americans are more supportive of additional market regulation than they were just a few months ago. In an earlier poll conducted in September, only 50% of respondents said there was too little government oversight, while 26% said the government was regulating the markets too much.
As Americans search for a safe place to put their funds, the vast majority - almost three-quarters of those polled by CNN/Opinion Research - said they would rather place money in a bank or stuff it under the mattress than invest it in stocks or bonds.
CNNMoney.com
December 23, 2008: 6:03 AM ET
Most Americans believe that investment fraud like the recently revealed Ponzi scheme run by Bernard Madoff happens regularly on Wall Street, according to a recent survey.
In a CNN/Opinion Research poll, 74% of those surveyed said they think Madoff's behavior is common among financial advisors and institutions. The Securities and Exchange Commission alleges that Madoff operated a $50 billion Ponzi scheme - the largest in history - that cost some of the world's largest financial firms, charitable foundations and individual investors hundreds of millions of dollars each.
Of the more than 1,000 American surveyed from Dec. 19-21, 59% said the government regulates the stock market and financial institutions too loosely. Just 22% said government regulation is too tight, while 18% said the government's current market oversight is exactly right.
Americans are more supportive of additional market regulation than they were just a few months ago. In an earlier poll conducted in September, only 50% of respondents said there was too little government oversight, while 26% said the government was regulating the markets too much.
As Americans search for a safe place to put their funds, the vast majority - almost three-quarters of those polled by CNN/Opinion Research - said they would rather place money in a bank or stuff it under the mattress than invest it in stocks or bonds.
Leading the horse to water
By MICHAEL CORKERY
Wall Street Journal
December 31, 2008
Mortgage lenders who wake up Thursday with a New Year's hangover are likely to face another headache soon: The effort to give bankruptcy judges the power to rewrite mortgages is gaining steam.
The banking industry hoped the mortgage "cram-down" measure died when Congress removed it from the $700 billion bailout bill that passed in October. But it has been gathering momentum in Democrat-controlled Washington, as evidence emerges that current voluntary foreclosure-prevention programs are falling short.
"To the extent that nothing else is working, bankruptcy cram-downs are becoming more likely," says Rod Dubitsky, head of asset-backed-securities research at Credit Suisse.
The latest embattled foreclosure-prevention program is Hope for Homeowners, which was approved by Congress last summer and supposed to help 400,000 homeowners. Only 357 people have signed up so far for the voluntary program. The Department of Housing and Urban Development, which is administering the program, acknowledges that it has been encumbered by high fees and narrow eligibility requirements.
With efforts to stem home foreclosures stagnating, mortgage 'cram-down' efforts seem destined to re-emerge under the new Congress.
Another government program, FHASecure, was intended to help 80,000 homeowners who had fallen behind on their payments after their adjustable interest rates reset. It has helped only 4,100 delinquent borrowers refinance since September 2007 and will stop taking new loan applications as of Wednesday.
Mortgage lenders also are modifying tens of thousands of loans without government help. But often this hasn't solved the problem. A report last week by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision found that nearly 37% of mortgages modified in the first quarter of 2008 were 60 days or more delinquent after six months.
"It is absolutely clear that voluntary modification is just not working," says Rep. Brad Miller, a North Carolina Democrat. "Every plan that Congress has passed, we do it and nothing happens."
Wall Street Journal
December 31, 2008
Mortgage lenders who wake up Thursday with a New Year's hangover are likely to face another headache soon: The effort to give bankruptcy judges the power to rewrite mortgages is gaining steam.
The banking industry hoped the mortgage "cram-down" measure died when Congress removed it from the $700 billion bailout bill that passed in October. But it has been gathering momentum in Democrat-controlled Washington, as evidence emerges that current voluntary foreclosure-prevention programs are falling short.
"To the extent that nothing else is working, bankruptcy cram-downs are becoming more likely," says Rod Dubitsky, head of asset-backed-securities research at Credit Suisse.
The latest embattled foreclosure-prevention program is Hope for Homeowners, which was approved by Congress last summer and supposed to help 400,000 homeowners. Only 357 people have signed up so far for the voluntary program. The Department of Housing and Urban Development, which is administering the program, acknowledges that it has been encumbered by high fees and narrow eligibility requirements.
With efforts to stem home foreclosures stagnating, mortgage 'cram-down' efforts seem destined to re-emerge under the new Congress.
Another government program, FHASecure, was intended to help 80,000 homeowners who had fallen behind on their payments after their adjustable interest rates reset. It has helped only 4,100 delinquent borrowers refinance since September 2007 and will stop taking new loan applications as of Wednesday.
Mortgage lenders also are modifying tens of thousands of loans without government help. But often this hasn't solved the problem. A report last week by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision found that nearly 37% of mortgages modified in the first quarter of 2008 were 60 days or more delinquent after six months.
"It is absolutely clear that voluntary modification is just not working," says Rep. Brad Miller, a North Carolina Democrat. "Every plan that Congress has passed, we do it and nothing happens."
Praying for a change
By Danny Wilcox-Frazier
The Wall Street Journal
December 30, 2008
Farmer Benjamin Riensche is being squeezed by high costs and up-and-down grain pricing. The 47-year-old former banker fears he may face his first financial loss on his family farm. His revenue is falling, but the costs of seed, fertilizer and machinery have remained high. Mr. Riensche bought most of his supplies months ago, when grain prices were still high. Many of his suppliers are still trying to pass along the higher costs they absorbed in recent years for everything from metal and chemicals to natural gas. To lower his costs, he could idle land, but figures raising a crop at least gives him a chance to benefit if prices move back up, as some predict.
All this is happening even though the world has been producing more grain than ever. Demand has grown faster than farmers could increase their production most years of this decade, helping to drain grain reserves. Unusually good weather in most of the world this year is refilling grains stocks once again. But the situation could easily change. Some economists worry that the world will consume more grain than it produces by 2010, particularly if oil prices recover enough to make the production of ethanol from corn more profitable again.
After prices of crops peaked in the summer, bumper crops recently helped reduce prices, dousing the anger behind riots in nearly 60 countries. But crop reserves remain unusually low while demand continues to grow. That means the slightest disruption -- flooding, drought, disease, or extra-cautious farmers -- could have a much bigger impact on prices than it would have had in recent decades.
"There's no cushion," said Daniel W. Basse, president of AgResource Co., a Chicago commodity forecasting concern. "It's a very volatile situation."
Mr. Riensche's suppliers and the owners of the land he leases jacked up their prices to cash in on the grain boom. His seed costs for next year are jumping 33%, and his fertilizer bill is more than doubling. Hog producers who used to pay to have manure removed from their barns are now making corn farmers pay for its value as fertilizer.
Mr. Riensche figures it will cost him close to $5 to grow a bushel of corn next year and about $11 to grow a bushel of soybeans -- not good with prices where they are at the moment. Taking their cues from the Chicago Board of Trade, local buyers are offering about $4 a bushel for corn that farmers promise to deliver next year, while soybean processors are offering about $9.
Federal subsidy checks aren't likely to help U.S. farmers as much as they once did. Corn and soybean prices are still above the levels that automatically trigger price-support related checks from the government.
The chance of red ink returning to the Farm Belt is prompting rural bankers to tighten their lending standards, which could force farmers to draw down their savings in order to stay in business. Bankers already expect some of their most indebted farmers to get out of the business next year.
"We are taking a big leap of faith," Mr. Riensche says as hunches over his personal computer, staring at commodity price charts. "We are praying for a change in the markets."
The Wall Street Journal
December 30, 2008
Farmer Benjamin Riensche is being squeezed by high costs and up-and-down grain pricing. The 47-year-old former banker fears he may face his first financial loss on his family farm. His revenue is falling, but the costs of seed, fertilizer and machinery have remained high. Mr. Riensche bought most of his supplies months ago, when grain prices were still high. Many of his suppliers are still trying to pass along the higher costs they absorbed in recent years for everything from metal and chemicals to natural gas. To lower his costs, he could idle land, but figures raising a crop at least gives him a chance to benefit if prices move back up, as some predict.
All this is happening even though the world has been producing more grain than ever. Demand has grown faster than farmers could increase their production most years of this decade, helping to drain grain reserves. Unusually good weather in most of the world this year is refilling grains stocks once again. But the situation could easily change. Some economists worry that the world will consume more grain than it produces by 2010, particularly if oil prices recover enough to make the production of ethanol from corn more profitable again.
After prices of crops peaked in the summer, bumper crops recently helped reduce prices, dousing the anger behind riots in nearly 60 countries. But crop reserves remain unusually low while demand continues to grow. That means the slightest disruption -- flooding, drought, disease, or extra-cautious farmers -- could have a much bigger impact on prices than it would have had in recent decades.
"There's no cushion," said Daniel W. Basse, president of AgResource Co., a Chicago commodity forecasting concern. "It's a very volatile situation."
Mr. Riensche's suppliers and the owners of the land he leases jacked up their prices to cash in on the grain boom. His seed costs for next year are jumping 33%, and his fertilizer bill is more than doubling. Hog producers who used to pay to have manure removed from their barns are now making corn farmers pay for its value as fertilizer.
Mr. Riensche figures it will cost him close to $5 to grow a bushel of corn next year and about $11 to grow a bushel of soybeans -- not good with prices where they are at the moment. Taking their cues from the Chicago Board of Trade, local buyers are offering about $4 a bushel for corn that farmers promise to deliver next year, while soybean processors are offering about $9.
Federal subsidy checks aren't likely to help U.S. farmers as much as they once did. Corn and soybean prices are still above the levels that automatically trigger price-support related checks from the government.
The chance of red ink returning to the Farm Belt is prompting rural bankers to tighten their lending standards, which could force farmers to draw down their savings in order to stay in business. Bankers already expect some of their most indebted farmers to get out of the business next year.
"We are taking a big leap of faith," Mr. Riensche says as hunches over his personal computer, staring at commodity price charts. "We are praying for a change in the markets."
Yuan Watch : Deflationary pressures
By Scott Patterson
Wall Street Journal
December 30, 2008
Oil demand in China may be softer than many expect.
A recent government report showed confidence among Chinese businessmen is waning rapidly. The sentiment index of the Xinhua Finance/MNI business survey, a poll of executives at 152 companies in China released late last week, hit a third consecutive record low in December, dropping to 35.2 from 39.9 in November. A reading of 50 indicates neutral sentiment.
Meanwhile, in November, oil demand in China was down 3.9% from a year ago, based on estimates by Paul Ting, an independent U.S.-based oil analyst and observer of Chinese markets. Mr. Ting wrote in a Monday report that he expects oil demand in December to decline 4.5% from last year to 7.4 million barrels a day, based in part on soft demand from Chinese oil refineries.
Wall Street Journal
December 30, 2008
Oil demand in China may be softer than many expect.
A recent government report showed confidence among Chinese businessmen is waning rapidly. The sentiment index of the Xinhua Finance/MNI business survey, a poll of executives at 152 companies in China released late last week, hit a third consecutive record low in December, dropping to 35.2 from 39.9 in November. A reading of 50 indicates neutral sentiment.
Meanwhile, in November, oil demand in China was down 3.9% from a year ago, based on estimates by Paul Ting, an independent U.S.-based oil analyst and observer of Chinese markets. Mr. Ting wrote in a Monday report that he expects oil demand in December to decline 4.5% from last year to 7.4 million barrels a day, based in part on soft demand from Chinese oil refineries.
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